Humanities and Social Sciences

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics


Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics | 2020 | No 4 |

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The paper analyses the consequences of structural change in the presenceof non-stationary stochastic processes I(1) or I(2). The structural change mayconcern the deterministic structure (in particular, the trend and the constantterm) as well as the process generating the stochastic part. The focus of thepaper is on the case of a discrete change in a regime for which the momentof switch is known. A change in the deterministic part does not alter thecharacter of the cointegration relationships but its consequences for cotrendingand cobreaking are interesting. The consequences of a change in the stochasticpart are more complex, because then the stochastic process as well as thedeterministic structure of the VECM are modified. The restrictions are analysedfor both cases.

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Authors and Affiliations

Michał Majsterek
Emilia Gosińska


The basic idea of the paper is to apply a multi-attribute notion of diversityproposed by Nehring and Puppe to technological changes appearing as aconsequence of innovations in Schumpeter’s sense of the term in the productionsphere of the economy modelled by the use of the Arrow and Debreu topologicalapparatus. The paper is inspired by the work of Malawski and Woerter whoused Stirling diversity concept to prove that innovative processes are the sourceof growing diversity in the Schumpeterian vision of economic development. Weshow that, under certain conditions, nondecreasing multi-attribute diversity inthe production sphere of the private ownership economy is a necessary andsufficient condition for the occurrence of innovation in the economy under study.

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This paper investigates the relative importance of cost, demand, financialand monetary shocks in driving real exchange rates in four CEE countries over2000–2018. A two-country New Keynesian open economy model is used as atheoretical framework. In the empirical part, a Bayesian SVAR model withMarkov switching heteroscedasticity is employed. The structural shocks areidentified on the basis of volatility changes and named with reference to the signrestrictions derived from the economic model. Main findings are fourfold. First,real and financial shocks have similar contributions to real exchange variability,whereas that of monetary shocks is small. Second, financial shocks amplifyexchange rate fluctuations stemming from real shocks. Third, even though theexchange rate gaps change over time, they remain quite similar across CEEcountries except for Slovakia. Fourth, Slovakia introduced the euro at the timeof a relatively large real overvaluation, which subsided after a lengthy adjustmentprocess.

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Authors and Affiliations

Marek A. Dąbrowski
Łukasz Kwiatkowski
Justyna Wróblewska
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In this paper the identification problem is considered for initial conditionsin a non-minimal state-space model that includes interpretable state variablesgenerated by non-stationary stochastic processes. In order to solve theidentification problem, structural restrictions are imposed on initial conditionsin a state-space model with redundant state variables. The correspondingrestricted maximum likelihood estimator of initial conditions is derived.The restricted estimator of initial conditions can be used in order tocompute uniquely identified realizations of interpretable latent variables. Theidentification problem is illustrated analytically using a simple structuraleconomic model.

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Authors and Affiliations

Victor Bystrov

Editorial office

JACEK OSIEWALSKI, Cracow University of Economics, Poland
ALEKSANDER WELFE, University of Lodz, Poland


KATARZYNA BIEŃ-BARKOWSKA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MIKOŁAJ CZAJKOWSKI, University of Warsaw, Poland
JAKUB GROWIEC, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MAREK GRUSZCZYŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
BOGUMIŁ KAMIŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MARCIN KOLASA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
ANNA PAJOR, Cracow University of Economics, Poland

Associate Editors
KARIM ABADIR, The American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt
ANINDYA BANERJEE, University of Birmingham, UK
STEPHEN HALL, University of Leicester, UK
GARY KOOP, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
MARK STEEL, University of Warwick, UK
MARTIN WAGNER, Technical University of Dortmund, Germany
JAN WERNER, University of Minnesota, USA
PETER WINKER, University of Giessen, Germany

Editorial Board

HERMAN van DIJK, Erasmus University Rotterdam and VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
LAWRENCE R. KLEIN, University of Pennsylvania, Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics, USA
TIMO TERASVIRTA, University of Aarhus, Denmark
HELMUT LUETKEPOHL, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany

Publishing Editor

ANNA STASZEWSKA-BYSTROVA, University of Lodz, Poland

Editorial Assistant

AGNIESZKA RYGIEL, Cracow University of Economics, Poland


CEJEME Editorial Office - Ms. Karolina Jaszczyk, Polish Academy of Sciencies - Lodz Branch
Piotrkowska Str. 137/139, 90-434 Lodz, Poland

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